Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s majority in the House of Representatives is slimming to a narrow 222 -to- 213 margin. The math of the matter has political operative Roger Stone encouraging President Donald J. Trump to seek the House Speakership.
In order to secure that office, Trump would need the backing of every Republican member, plus five breakaway Democrats. Stone has five centrist Democrats in mind: each from midwestern rust belt States; each having expressed a willingness to break from Pelosi in the past; and each with the same blue-collar post-industrial constituency that forms the Trump base.
Although it’s never happened before, the Constitution allows the House of Representatives to elect anyone Speaker — even someone from outside the chamber, who hasn’t been elected to it. But in practice, non-members have received only a few votes in various minor speakership elections over the past several years.
If Trump is able to secure the 218 votes, it would be the first time in American history that a former President serves as the Speaker of the House — an extraordinary political feat unto itself.
Stone believes that Rep. Brian Higgins (D – Buffalo), Rep. Joe Morelle (D – Rochester), Rep. Tim Ryan (D – Akron), and a few others representing legacy industrial cities, could be convinced to back Trump with the commitment that his agenda will make the Midwest’s industrial revival priority number one during his Speakership.
It’s also likely to take an extraordinary amount of pork-barrel spending for each of those five members’ districts — which could amount to $5 billion in earmarks between the five members, over the course of a two-year term.
Such a political alignment in the House would neutralize the influence of pro-China interests and the politicians upon whom they bestow patronage. The coalition would constitute a lever of power that can effectively stop the reintroduction of pro-China trade policies, which is expected of the Biden administration.
Alternatively, Stone postulates, that Trump could secure the five votes from a handful of Hispanic Democrats who represent communities along the southern border — but only if Trump promises to deliver comprehensive immigration reform, which is something that Pelosi has been utterly unable to deliver. It’s thought that Trump alone is capable of crafting a middle ground.
It’s unclear whether Trump can architect a legislative deal that woos five Democrats (from whatever faction) without alienating a single member of the Republican caucus.
“Most observers believe that Trump would be the most effective Speaker in American history since Henry Clay,” Stone has insisted to confidants.
“President Trump brings to the table the ability to deliver Republican votes — something that previous Speakers have been unable to do,” one House Republican postulates. “He is a natural dealmaker who aims to architect compromise, but in a way that puts the interests of the American people first, and we need that kind of leadership.”