Despite Buffalo’s mildly improved economic climate and sense of civic optimism of the last decade-and-a-half, the City still faces stark challenges. Across all indicators, the City is getting older, poorer, and sicker. A dearth of political leadership has squandered any semblance of hope of a turnaround that was widely mused about over the last decade. Struggling schools, high rates of violent crime, and insatiable ambitions for community revival complicate the City’s politics.
The City has chronically failed to address these crises. The posture of a patronage-oriented city has never been to manage the City’s budget prudently or to deliver services effectively. Since at least the late Mayor Jimmy Griffin — and likely long before then — the City’s entire political orientation has been focused on how many unqualified politicos could be stuffed into the city budget.
Now, budget challenges are being driven by rising costs and a lack of political will to lay off unnecessary city workers, many of them part of the region’s toxic mafia-like culture of political patronage — a culture that Brown embraced and benefited greatly from.
In a wealthier community where economic opportunity is more readily available, a bloated city patronage workforce might not seem like much of an irritant for voters. But in a structurally poor city like Buffalo, those scarce dollars are diverted year after year from badly needed infrastructure investments. Dated infrastructure like crumbling sidewalks are unusable and roadways are in deplorable conditions. Potholes, which do real damage to vehicles, are constant and highly visible irritants to residents.
Acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon is trying to explain away his twelve years on the Common Council, with responsibility for budget oversight and all of the quality of life issues that continue to plague the City. Meanwhile, Senator Sean Ryan is having a difficult time making a case for himself, unable to tangibly show what he’s been able to deliver while in Albany. Both campaigns have raised just under $600,000.
It’s been clear that the on-the-ground energy has been with the campaign of former Fire Commissioner Garnell Whitfield, who is widely expected to win the Eastside by substantial margins. He has a compelling narrative. He became a gun control advocate following the assassination of his mother, Ruth Whitfield, who was gunned down in a politically motivated massacre at Tops Markets on Jefferson Avenue on May 22, 2022.
Budget Deficit and Fiscal Management
Buffalo faces a significant budget shortfall, estimated at $41 million in revenues that will not be available in the 2025–2026 budget, compounded by the end of federal pandemic aid. Scanlon’s first budget as Mayor includes a hotel occupancy tax, known colloquially as ‘the Bed Tax’, along with parking rates and a huge projected increase in parking ticket revenues, estimated to raise $6 million. The plan would close the deficit without laying off city workers.
Candidates are under pressure to propose solutions without resorting to property tax hikes or layoffs, which have both been minimal under Mayor Brown’s tenure. Scanlon advocates for spending cuts, while Ryan pushes for audits and operating efficiencies. Whitfield calls for progressive taxation and employee residency incentives.
The next mayor must navigate a tight fiscal landscape while maintaining city services, making budget management a central campaign issue — all while the City’s capital budget remains lacking when considering the magnitude of deferred maintenance of roadways, sidewalks, public housing, parks, and public spaces.
Housing Affordability
The City’s housing stock is far older than most cities. Broad swaths of the city suffer from deplorable conditions, dilapidation, and vacant lots. For many years, there were so many vacant houses that the homeless had been able to find unlawful shelter. Now, after years of rising rents that outpaced national averages, and fewer abandoned properties sitting idle, the city’s homelessness problem has become more visible.
Affordability has become a top concern in recent years.
In the State Senate, Ryan’s legislative efforts have focused on state funding for new homes and rentals, usually in the form of financing programs for non-profit housing corporations. Whitfield and Gainer emphasize affordable housing tied to community needs, with Gainer advocating for infill development on vacant lots.
While Scanlon’s alignment with developers irks some on the left, the broad majority of voters feel confident in his ability to attract private-sector investment in new housing. Constructing more housing units downtown is seen as the lynchpin of the City’s revival — something that is unlikely under a Ryan administration.
Voters are looking for concrete plans to expand the city’s housing stock, and many want to do so without displacing low-income residents.
Public Safety and Violent Crime
Public safety is a stated priority for all of the candidates, who generally agree that they must balance community trust and law enforcement support. Scanlon’s backing from police and fire unions contrasts with Ryan’s call for greater transparency and community oversight policing. Whitfield’s advocacy against gun violence positions him as a unique voice for prevention-based safety measures.
Candidates like Wyatt and Gainer — both widely seen as spoilers have campaigned on the promise of funneling more resources into underserved areas, proposing investments in neighborhood streetscape infrastructure and community assets.
Buffalo faces a persistent public safety challenge, with violent crime rates remaining a significant concern. The city’s overall crime rate is notably higher than national and state averages, driven by both violent and property crimes, though violent crime — encompassing murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault — has been a focal point for residents and policymakers.
Buffalo’s violent crime rate has consistently ranked among the highest in the U.S. for cities of its size. For example, 2021 data indicates a violent crime rate of approximately 736 incidents per 100,000 residents, translating to a 1 in 134 chance of becoming a victim of a violent crime. This is roughly twice the national average and significantly higher than New York State’s average.
Homicides have been a particular concern, with Buffalo recording some of the highest murder rates among U.S. cities. In 2022, the city reported 71 homicides, which dropped to 39 in 2023—a 45% decrease. Despite this improvement, the 2023 figure still reflects a murder rate of about 14 per 100,000, notably high for a mid-sized city.
Gun violence has been a critical issue. In 2023, Buffalo saw 141 shooting incidents with 167 victims, 25 of which were fatal. This marked a significant reduction from 2022, with fatal shootings down 57.6% and overall shootings dropping. Many attribute the decline to community investment in violence intervention programs.
Rapes and robberies also saw declines in 2023, with rapes dropping 54% (from 121 to 56 cases) and robberies decreasing compared to prior years. However, aggravated assaults remain a major contributor to the violent crime rate, often involving weapons.
Buffalo’s total crime rate, including property crimes like burglary and auto theft, is about 70% higher than the national average, with 3,947 incidents per 100,000 people reported in recent analyses. While violent crime decreased by 15.2% from 2021 to 2022, property crime rose by 14.2%, with motor vehicle thefts surging dramatically—1,394 cases in 2022, a trend that worsened into 2023.
Crime is unevenly distributed across Buffalo’s neighborhoods. The Westside and, in particular, on the East Side, see the highest violent crime rates, with some neighborhoods facing a 1 in 116 chance of violent crime victimization.
Poverty, affecting over 30% of Buffalo’s population, is frequently cited as a driver of crime, alongside issues like lack of economic development, education disparities, and family breakdown.
Buffalo’s police clearance rate for violent crimes is about 48%, slightly below the average for mid-sized cities, with a notably low 26% for murders, ranking among the worst nationally. This has fueled calls for improved policing strategies.
Economic Development and Poverty
For decades Buffalo has grappled with entrenched structural poverty, with one of the highest poverty rates among U.S. cities, with approximately 30.1% of residents living below the federal poverty line in recent data (circa 2023). This translates to about 83,000 people in a city of roughly 276,000. The child poverty rate is even starker, often exceeding 40% — among the very worst nationally.
Poverty is heavily concentrated in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, especially on the East Side. For example, zip codes like 14208 and 14211 have poverty rates nearing 40 to 50%, compared to wealthier, largely white areas like North Buffalo or Elmwood Village, where rates dip below 10%. Black residents, who make up about 36% of the population, face a poverty rate of 33.6%, compared to 22.7% for white residents.
Buffalo’s economic decline began with the collapse of its industrial base in the mid-20th century. The loss of manufacturing jobs—steel, auto, and grain industries—devastated working-class communities. By 1980, the city had lost 40% of its manufacturing jobs, replaced largely by lower-wage service sector roles. Today, only 7% of jobs are in manufacturing, with many residents employed in healthcare, education, or retail, often at stagnant wages.
Historical redlining and discriminatory housing policies structuralized the region’s segregated socio-spatial development patterns. Structural disinvestment in Black and low-income neighborhoods is visible in dilapidated housing, crumbling roads, unusable sidewalks, and more than 15,000 vacant lots.
The vestiges of segregation persist in Buffalo’s stark racial wealth gap: the median household income for white families is roughly $54,000, compared to $28,000 for Black families.
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