By Nora Kowalczyk
BUFFALO — Buffalo Public Schools could run out of cash by December 2027 if the Board of Education does not act on the district’s plan to close and merge schools, the district’s chief financial officer told board members last week.
“Assuming there’s no decision on the right-sizing plan for the ‘27-‘28 year, an initial maintenance of effort projection shows a $90 million to $100 million deficit,” CFO James Barnes said at a board workshop, WGRZ reported Thursday. “That includes step, longevity, contract cost increases for all 7,700 employees, and no reductions to any facilities, maintenance, utilities, classrooms, anything.”
“The first time we will run out of cash is probably around December 2027, and then we’ll run out three or four more times that year,” Mr. Barnes said. “This is assuming nothing’s done, and then you’re out of cash at the end of ‘27-‘28.”
The board has not scheduled a vote. Its next regular meeting is Wednesday, Nov. 18, at 5:30 p.m. at West Hertel Academy, and a special meeting before then is now unlikely because state law requires 48 hours’ public notice, WGRZ reported.
The plan on the table
Interim Superintendent Ebony Prophet-Bullock released the reorganization plan more than a month ago. It would retire the state codes of six schools, according to WGRZ:
- PS 33 Bilingual Center, whose building would become administrative offices;
- PS 59 Drew Science Magnet, whose building would go to Buffalo Rising Academy and Career Collegiate Institute;
- PS 17 Early Childhood Center, whose building would become administrative offices;
- PS 131 Academy School at 86, whose building would be returned to the City of Buffalo;
- PS 208 Riverside Academy, whose building would become the shared home of PS 212 and PS 366;
- PS 309 East Community High School, whose building would become the home of PS 415.
The district would also give up its lease at the Tri-Main building, where Research Academy is now housed.
The plan has been revised several times after community meetings. Its latest version would save $18 million a year, down from $24 million in the original proposal, Mr. Barnes told the board, The Buffalo News reported.
Fewer students, less state aid
The warning came the same week the district reported that enrollment had fallen by 708 students from October 2025, after two years of small gains, according to The News. District staff estimated a drop of 611 students in kindergarten through 12th grade and 97 in prekindergarten. K-12 enrollment now stands at 27,307, or 29,151 with prekindergarten. A decade ago, in 2017-18, the district enrolled 31,203 students in K-12, according to state data cited by The News.
Because state Foundation Aid follows enrollment, the drop will cost money. “That will result in a decrease in Foundation Aid next year,” Mr. Barnes told the board. “It’s too hard to tell how much of a decrease because the Foundation Aid formula encompasses much more than just an enrollment drop.” Multiplying the lost K-12 students by a projected average of $16,000 in Foundation Aid per student gives a rough estimate of about $10 million, he said.
State aid makes up 87% of the district’s $1.12 billion budget, The News reported. Foundation Aid alone rose from $620 million in 2022-23 to a projected $757 million in 2025-26, after Gov. Kathy Hochul moved to fully fund the formula in 2023, The News reported.
Mr. Barnes said the district is staffed for more classrooms than its enrollment supports. “We have too many schools, thus too many classrooms within each school,” he said, adding that, excluding special-education classrooms, the district’s teacher-to-pupil ratio is 8-to-1. “Most districts have already cut the buildings, cut the classrooms, made them larger, and then you reduce the staff in that to a more normal 16-to-1 level.”
Dr. Prophet-Bullock has pushed back on the idea that charter schools are the main cause of the decline. “The last three to five years, there’s been these urban myths that the charters are sucking our students from us,” she said at the session. She pointed instead to a falling birth rate and to young people who leave the state and do not return. “It’s a population pattern that we have to really contend with,” she said.
Charter tuition is still one of the district’s largest costs, at $203 million in 2026-27, according to The News. Data from the New York Charter Schools Association show Buffalo charter enrollment has risen every year since 2016, though by only 75 students from 2024-25 to 2025-26, the smallest gain in 11 years.
A vote delayed
The superintendent had asked for a vote in October. “We can’t move the vote back to November,” Dr. Prophet-Bullock said on Oct. 20, according to WGRZ. “Well, let me say this, it is on the board to vote tomorrow or not.” The board tabled it the next day.
Afterward, she softened that warning but kept the urgency. “So to put it bluntly, like someone said today, it’s not like the sky is falling tomorrow,” she said. “But there are some financial challenges that we will need to lay over this decision and come to a decision probably quicker than most people would want us to do.”
Before the Nov. 4 session, she told WBEN the plan was in the board’s hands. “We gave them a well-documented, data-driven plan and now we have to rely on their decision-making,” she said. Mr. Barnes had warned at an Oct. 26 public meeting that if the budget gap is not closed, the district could face a hard control board and the loss of some athletic, summer school and after-school programs, WBEN reported.
The delay has a practical cost of its own. The district cannot finish its budget or its four-year financial plan, normally released in September, until the board decides on closures, WGRZ reported. That plan has not been released.
What to watch
The board’s nine members have not reached a clear consensus, according to WBEN. If the board votes on Nov. 18, the decision will shape the 2027-28 budget and the four-year plan. If it does not, the district’s own projection puts the gap at up to $100 million for 2027-28.
The Chronicle’s opinion page has argued that the board should put a final plan in writing and vote on it Nov. 18 and that educator pay belongs in the closure debate. This news report takes no position on the plan.
The Buffalo Chronicle is seeking comment from the district and the Board of Education on whether a vote will be on the Nov. 18 agenda and when the four-year plan will be released. This story will be updated with any response.
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