By Graham MacInnis
BUFFALO — President Donald Trump says he and Prime Minister Mark Carney have “the concept” of a trade deal. Mr. Carney says Washington is “asking less and offering more.” Neither has announced terms, and a 50 percent U.S. tariff on a list of Canadian goods remains in force, according to a Yahoo Finance analysis that cites the Associated Press and BNN Bloomberg.
For Western New York, where the Peace Bridge, Rainbow Bridge and Lewiston-Queenston crossing link the region to Canada, the question is what comes next and how soon. Here is what both governments have said, what is still unresolved, and the dates to watch.
What each side has said
Mr. Trump said he spoke with Mr. Carney on Saturday, Oct. 31, and Mr. Carney’s office confirmed the call to CTV News, the Yahoo analysis said. The next day, Mr. Carney wrote on social media that it was a good conversation that “builds on our recent constructive discussions on the outlines of a mutually beneficial trade deal that would create jobs for our workers, boost affordability for families, and fully respect Canada’s languages, culture, and sovereignty,” Newsmax reported. “Our teams will now be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome,” he added.
Speaking Tuesday on the sidelines of a Commonwealth meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, Mr. Carney described progress. “They’re asking less and they’re offering more, but we’re not quite there,” he said, CBC News reported. He said two of Canada’s red lines, French-language streaming rules and Canada’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries, had been addressed. “Those are now off the table. That’s very welcome,” Mr. Carney said. Mr. Trump told Fox News the same day that his administration was nearing an agreement with Canada, CBC reported.
The White House position
The White House has described its approach as a team effort. “Both Secretary Lutnick and Ambassador Greer have had discussions with their Canadian counterparts as this administration continues to work on the cross-cutting issues involving trade with Canada,” a White House official told Politico, as summarized by Newsmax. “The whole Trump Administration is onboard as we engage with Canada and work towards finalizing the details of a deal that will deliver meaningful results for the American people,” the official said.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is urging Mr. Trump to resume negotiations, Politico reported, citing three people familiar with the discussions. Newsmax’s summary of the Politico report said Mr. Greer wants to avert a steeper tariff increase Mr. Trump has threatened for Jan. 1 and to make progress on the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Mr. Greer has told Congress he hoped to settle most of that agreement’s provisions by the end of 2026, leaving harder issues for 2027.
Why the 50 percent tariff exists
The Yahoo analysis traces the tariff to a July 20 proclamation under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. It puts an added 50 percent duty on listed Canadian products and excludes items already covered by Section 232 tariffs. The proclamation’s stated reason is Canada’s treatment of U.S. vehicles. It finds Canada has charged a 25 percent tariff since April 9, 2025, on U.S. vehicles that do not qualify under the USMCA, and says: “Canada only applies the tariff scheme to U.S.-origin motor vehicles.”
The administration counts U.S. vehicle exports to Canada as down about 22 percent, from roughly $25.9 billion to $20.3 billion, comparing April 2025 through March 2026 with the year before, according to the same analysis. Canada’s side of the story differs. As the AP reported it, Canada says it walked away from the August talks after rejecting U.S. demands that Mr. Carney said threatened Canadian sovereignty, French-language protections and the auto industry. A Sept. 8 U.S. proclamation says Canada reneged on its commitment and stopped negotiating in good faith on Aug. 21.
What is still unresolved
Mr. Carney did not say which issues remain, but CBC reported that autos are expected to be a key sticking point, as they were in August before talks collapsed and new tariffs followed on both sides. Mr. Trump has said the deal includes the Keystone XL pipeline and that farmers would pay no tariffs on Canadian products, and he has acknowledged the details are not final, the Yahoo analysis said. The proclamation’s findings, it noted, rest on vehicles, not pipelines or farm goods.
The list of goods has also moved. A White House fact sheet dated Oct. 23 describes a revision that took effect Oct. 30, removing plywood, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment and packing crates and adding valves, carpets and waste products, according to the analysis. The fact sheet says Section 338 lets the President suspend, revoke or amend the proclamations when the public interest requires. A signed deal could lift the duties quickly, and they could return as quickly.
Canadian officials increasingly recognize that the U.S. midterm elections may not change Washington’s approach, Politico reported, according to Newsmax’s summary, quoting a source: “There was a lot of hope for a while that the election would just change the trajectory of the conversation.”
What to watch
Mr. Carney said he will meet Mr. Trump in China later this month at the APEC summit, CBC reported. BNN Bloomberg reported that no date has been set for Canada’s chief negotiator to return to Washington. The first check on whether the talks are real is whether either government publishes a text or changes the proclamation before Jan. 1. Importers and exporters in the Buffalo-Niagara region can follow the U.S. Trade Representative’s notices and the Canada Border Services Agency’s customs notices for changes to the covered product list.
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