By Graham MacInnis
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump spoke by phone over the weekend and both sides now say they are working toward a trade deal, two days before American voters go to the polls in midterm elections where the trade war has become a campaign issue in border states like New York.
“Our teams will now be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome,” Carney said on social media Sunday morning, describing a “good conversation” that “builds on our recent constructive discussions,” CBC News reported.
Trump was upbeat. “We have the concept of a deal that’s going to be great for our farmers, great for our country, and it will be fine for Canada,” the president told reporters Sunday evening, according to CBC.
A White House spokesperson said in a statement that “the Trump Administration welcomes continued engagement with Canada as we work toward finalizing the details of a deal that will deliver meaningful results for the American people.”
Not a deal yet
Officials on the Canadian side were careful to lower expectations. A senior Canadian source told CBC it was unclear what form the next round of talks would take. CBC updated its story after first reporting, based on sourcing, that formal negotiations were set to resume.
A source familiar with the discussions told Radio-Canada that “key elements” remain unresolved. “We are not on the verge of an agreement just yet,” the source said.
Sources had told CBC last month that Canadian officials were telling industry groups a deal was unlikely before Tuesday’s U.S. vote. The Globe and Mail also reported that the two countries were expected to resume formal talks.
Carney said last Wednesday that Canada was not yet in a position to sign. “We think there’s deals that are in the best interests of Canada, first and foremost, but also are in the interests of the United States. That’s always been the case. We’ve been consistent,” he said.
In his Sunday post, Carney said any agreement must “create jobs for our workers, boost affordability for families, and fully respect Canada’s languages, culture, and sovereignty.”
Why the August talks collapsed
The two governments came close in August before talks fell apart, prompting both countries to impose steep duties on each other. Autos are expected to remain the main sticking point.
Carney has said he walked away because Washington demanded terms that would “destroy” major Canadian industries, including autos, steel and aluminum. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said Canadian negotiators raised tariff relief for medium- and heavy-duty trucks only at the last minute, in order to kill the deal.
Canada’s chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, disputed that account in an interview with CBC’s The House. She said Canada did raise trucks on the final Friday, but that negotiators “also raised them on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.”
Carney has also said the U.S. objected late in the talks to Canadian rules that make French-language content easy to find on streaming services, and tried to limit Canada’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries. Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer rejected the French-language claim. Greer told CBC in August that the text contained no ban on other trade deals, and that the U.S. wanted to keep Canada from becoming a back door for steel and aluminum from other countries.
At the time, Ontario Premier Doug Ford backed Carney’s decision to walk away. “I’m glad he didn’t sign that deal because it was a bad deal,” Ford said in August, according to CityNews Toronto. “I thought it was a terrible deal and I was very clear with the Prime Minister, once you make these deals they can last for years and years and go into decades.”
The midterm backdrop
Some political watchers have suggested the timing of Sunday’s announcement may be political, CBC reported, as Trump faces a tough midterm fight in border states where the trade war is unpopular.
Democrats have used the tariffs to argue that the president has not done enough on the cost of living. Some Republican candidates have defended the duties, while others have distanced themselves from them, according to CBC.
The administration’s position is that it wants a better deal for American workers and farmers, and Trump and other senior U.S. officials have suggested in recent weeks that progress was being made. Asked about a possible deal before the midterms, Carney said Canada “will only entertain” an agreement that suits Canadians, CBC reported.
What it means for the Niagara Frontier
Few places feel the trade war more directly than Western New York. The Peace Bridge and the Lewiston-Queenston Bridge carry trucks, commuters and shoppers between the two countries every day, and manufacturers on both sides of the Niagara River depend on parts and steel that cross the border, often more than once.
A deal would not end the uncertainty overnight. But a framework that lowers the duties imposed since August would matter to Buffalo-area exporters, border businesses and to the cross-border shoppers and visitors that local retailers count on.
In Ottawa, the trade talks also run alongside a busy week at home. Carney was heading to a Commonwealth summit ahead of a high-stakes federal budget, iPolitics reported, and he has called by-elections in Ontario, Quebec and Saskatchewan for Dec. 7, CTV News reported.
Asked for comment, the Prime Minister’s Office said in an email to The Buffalo Chronicle that it had no comment beyond Carney’s Sunday post. Gabriel Brunet, director of communications for Dominic LeBlanc, the minister handling the trade talks, said in an email: “We do not have anything else to share at this time.”
Neither government has set a date for the next formal round of talks.
Updated November 2, 2026: This story was updated to include comment from the Prime Minister’s Office and the office of Dominic LeBlanc.
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