By Walter Pryce
This is an opinion column. It reflects the views of the writer, drawing on a commentary published by the Reason Foundation, a libertarian-leaning public policy think tank. Views attributed to Reason are the foundation’s own.
Property tax relief is on the ballot in seven states this fall. Voters there face a dozen measures to cap, cut or exempt their way out of rising bills, and the Reason Foundation has a warning for all of them that applies just as well in Buffalo and Erie County: a tax cut that is not matched by a spending cut does not make the cost go away. It moves it.
That is the argument of a commentary published Oct. 30 by Mariana Trujillo, Reason’s managing director of government finance. Her point is simple enough to fit on a tax bill, and it deserves a hearing here, where the city and county are both in the middle of budget fights over the same dollars.
What Reason is arguing
Reason starts with the pressure homeowners feel. Property values have climbed about 56% since 2020, by the foundation’s count, and property taxes supply roughly 44% of local governments’ own revenue, compared with about 9% from sales taxes. When assessments rise that fast, bills follow, and politicians reach for relief.
The trouble, Trujillo writes, is that “cutting taxes is easier than cutting spending and services.” If a government cuts the levy and keeps spending the same, the gap gets filled one of three ways: by state and federal aid, which already makes up about 36% of local revenue and comes from the same taxpayers; by other local taxes and fees; or by borrowing. In her words, “today’s property tax relief may become tomorrow’s debt or tax hikes,” and homeowners may find that “the tax relief they received in one envelope may reappear in another.”
Reason also cautions that flat homestead exemptions tend to hit poorer cities hardest, because a fixed exemption wipes out a bigger share of a modest tax base. And when a surplus pays for relief, the foundation says a one-time rebate is the more honest tool than a permanent cut the budget cannot sustain.
Buffalo already knows how this works
Buffalo did not cut taxes this year. It raised them. The 2026-27 city budget, which the Common Council passed 5-4 on May 26, increased the property tax levy by 19%, down from the 25% Mayor Sean Ryan first proposed, WKBW reported. For a median $208,000 home, the increase works out to about $19 a month. The city’s user fee went up 25%.
Give the mayor credit for saying plainly why. Ryan described a deficit of more than $100 million, and he chose to put part of the bill on the tax base, about $40 million, rather than hide it. That is the same honesty Reason is asking for, run in the other direction: if the city wants to keep spending, it has to say who pays.
The rest of the gap shows why Reason’s warning matters. The budget leaned on Seneca gaming compact money, and the state later approved $25 million in one-time aid. One-time money is useful, but it is exactly the kind of other envelope Trujillo describes. It does not recur, and the Buffalo Fiscal Stability Authority still sees a potential gap of about $2.8 million.
Buffalo has also gone back to annual reassessment, covering 28 tax neighborhoods for the 2026 roll, according to the city’s assessment FAQ. That is fairer to owners than letting values drift for a decade, but it also means rising values will keep showing up on bills unless rates come down to match.
Erie County’s lower rate is not a lower bill
Erie County offers the other half of the lesson. County Executive Mark Poloncarz’s proposed 2027 budget totals about $2.4 billion. It cuts the county tax rate from $3.09 to $3.01 per $1,000 of assessed value, continuing a decline from $5.03 in 2012, and the county says it stays within the state tax cap.
That is a real accomplishment, and the administration deserves credit for it. But the levy, the total the county collects, still rises 3.6%, or about $12.7 million, to roughly $327 million, because assessments grew about 6.55%. A falling rate on a rising value can still mean a bigger bill, as WGRZ noted many owners may see. The Legislature votes in early December.
New York’s bigger warning sign
Reason’s own numbers make the debt part of its argument hard to dismiss in this state. In the foundation’s 50-state government finance report, New York carries the highest combined state and local debt in the country, about $37,006 per resident and $745 billion in all, including about $274 billion in unfunded retiree health obligations, the most of any state. When relief is financed with borrowing, New Yorkers have less room than anyone to absorb it.
New York’s tax cap, which since 2012 has limited most levy growth to 2% or inflation, whichever is lower, is a partial answer. It slows growth. It does not tell anyone what government should stop doing.
What local leaders should do
Reason’s prescription translates well to Niagara Square and the Rath Building. Any official who promises property tax relief in the next budget cycle should name, in the same breath, the spending that will shrink to pay for it, or say honestly that the money is one-time and will be paid out as a rebate rather than a permanent cut.
Voters can ask the same question at every budget hearing this winter: if my bill goes down, what goes away, and if nothing does, which envelope will it come back in? Those who disagree with Reason’s small-government view can still accept its arithmetic. The cost of government has to land somewhere, and taxpayers deserve to be told where.
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