By Sean Gallagher
AMHERST — Karen McMahon won her last two races in the 146th Assembly District by 16 and 20 points. Her party is spending this fall as if this year could be closer.
State campaign finance filings show the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee moved $196,000 into McMahon’s campaign account in two transfers on Sept. 29 and Oct. 2. In the 11 days that followed, her campaign paid a media firm $236,000 for television ads. Her Republican challenger, Terence “Terry” McGuire, has raised far less from donors. But he has collected more public matching money than she has, $135,694 to her $110,087, under New York’s new public campaign finance program.
The two face off Nov. 3 in a district that covers the Town of Amherst and the Village of Williamsville. McMahon, a Democrat seeking a fifth term, appears on the Democratic line, according to the Erie County ballot listing published by The Record. McGuire, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, is running on the Republican and Conservative lines.
The money
The figures come from the candidates’ committee filings in the state Board of Elections’ campaign finance disclosure data, through the 11-day pre-general reports filed this month. Those reports cover activity through Oct. 19.
McMahon’s committee, Friends of Karen McMahon, reported about $79,000 in contributions this year from individuals, unions, businesses and political committees. Its largest givers include the Women’s TAP Fund, a committee listed as NYSPT PAC and the Zellner for ECDC Chair committee, at $3,000 each, along with the UUP Higher Education Action Fund and the State Troopers PAC. On top of that came the $196,000 from the Assembly Democrats’ campaign arm and $110,087 in state matching funds.
The campaign reported about $305,000 in spending. Most of it, $236,000, went to Mark Guma Communications for television ads in two payments on Oct. 1 and Oct. 13. It also paid Beacon Research $26,500 for polling in August.
McGuire’s committee, McGuire for Assembly, reported about $36,000 in contributions, nearly all from individuals. The largest single donor listed is William Irr of Amherst, at $1,250. Most gifts are in the tens or hundreds of dollars, and many came from donors in Amherst, Williamsville and neighboring towns. That kind of small, local giving is what the state program is built to match. The state comptroller’s office paid McGuire’s campaign $114,150 on Sept. 4 and $21,544 on Sept. 22.
McGuire reported about $134,000 in spending. That includes about $66,800 for TV ads on WGRZ, WIVB and Spectrum Reach, about $27,000 for lawn signs and $6,000 to Barry Zeplowitz & Associates for polling on Oct. 13. On Oct. 19 his campaign sent $9,600 to the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee for mail and postage.
Neither committee had filed a 24-hour notice of a large late contribution as of the data the Chronicle reviewed. Those notices are required for big gifts in the final days before an election.
What they say about costs
Both candidates have made affordability the center of the race. They disagree about who is to blame.
In an interview with The Buffalo News, McMahon pointed to Washington. “What can we do to make life more affordable for all New Yorkers? Of course, there are groceries and gas, but a lot of those things are being driven by federal policies, inflation and tariffs,” she said.
She said the state budget is what keeps her up at night. “We spend a lot of money in New York, but we provide a lot of services that other states don’t. We’ve got a very generous social safety net,” McMahon told The News. “We’re going to be being called on to really fill even more of those holes as the federal government pulls back.”
McGuire puts the blame on Albany. “We are facing an affordability crisis created by nearly a decade of one-party control in the state government with rising taxes, soaring utility costs, burdensome regulations and policies that are driving families and businesses away from and out of the state,” he told The News.
He made the same case when he launched his campaign in June. “New York families are being squeezed from every direction,” McGuire said in his announcement, as reported by the Amherst Bee. “Groceries cost more. Utility bills keep climbing. Property taxes are crushing homeowners and seniors.”
On energy, McGuire supports fracking for natural gas in New York’s portion of the Marcellus Shale, which state law bans. “We could take care of ourselves. That’s what Pennsylvania does,” he told The News. McMahon told the paper that utility rates are “probably one of the big drivers of consumer complaints that I hear.” She has pointed to the $1 billion the state budget set aside for energy rebate checks to New York households.
The record
McMahon’s most recent win in Albany has backing from both parties. On Oct. 16, Gov. Kathy Hochul signed McMahon’s bill A.6790-A as Chapter 313 of 2026. It raises the state income tax credit for active volunteer firefighters and ambulance workers to $800, which the governor’s office described as quadrupling it. The bill also allows a local property tax exemption for those volunteers. The governor signed it with an approval memo, which usually means changes were negotiated. The bill passed the Assembly on May 14 and the Senate on June 1. Its long list of co-sponsors includes Western New York Republicans David DiPietro and Patrick Chludzinski.
McMahon has also argued that her standing inside the majority helps the district. “I consider myself a trusted ally of the speaker at this point in my career,” she told The News.
McGuire has no legislative record. He is a West Point graduate who deployed to Panama in 1989 and to Iraq as an Army reservist. He served at the Pentagon from 2009 to 2013 and retired last year as spokesperson for the VA Western New York Healthcare System, according to The News. His commendations include the Bronze Star. He has chaired the boards of the Western New York Veterans Housing Coalition and the Buffalo and Erie County Naval and Military Park. He and his wife, Noreen, are raising a daughter with autism, and he has said that has shaped his advocacy for people with developmental disabilities.
“She’s got obviously experience being in the government for several years,” McGuire told The News of McMahon. “But I think I have a fresh approach that we can bring to our voters that will appeal to them.”
No head-to-head forum
Voters have had few chances to see the two side by side. The League of Women Voters of Buffalo/Niagara invited 146th District candidates to an Oct. 15 event at the Amherst Center for Senior Citizens. But the League holds a forum only when at least two candidates for the same office agree to take part, the Bee reported. McGuire was listed as attending the meet-and-greet sessions. No Assembly forum was on the schedule.
The history and the turnout
McMahon took the seat from Republican Ray Walter in 2018. According to state Board of Elections results, she won 58.1% to 41.9% over Katrina Zeplowitz in 2022 and 60% to 39.9% over Deborah Kilbourn in 2024.
Early voting runs through Sunday, and the Amherst Center for Senior Citizens is one of the early voting sites. Countywide, turnout has been heavy. “We’ve compared this year to the last gubernatorial election we had, and we’re running about 50% higher than the turnout that we’ve had,” Ralph Mohr, the Republican commissioner of the Erie County Board of Elections, told WKBW.
The Chronicle has asked McMahon’s campaign about the party transfers and her TV spending. It could not find a public email address for McGuire’s campaign and invites it to respond at editor@buffalochronicle.com. This story will be updated with any response.
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