By Brett Halvorsen
WINNIPEG — Mayor Scott Gillingham remains the front-runner heading into Wednesday’s Winnipeg election, but a new poll suggests his lead has nearly been cut in half and most residents say it is time for someone new.
An Abacus Data survey for the Winnipeg Free Press, conducted Oct. 16 to 22, found 36% of decided voters back Gillingham, down 19 points from September. Former councillor and MLA Kevin Klein was second at 19%, with funeral home director Mike Vogiatzakis and software developer Noah Redden tied at 14%, CBC News reported.
Fifty-eight per cent of respondents said it is definitely or probably time for a new mayor, the Free Press reported.
‘Scott Gillingham’s race to lose’
“When you look at it, it does look like it’s Scott Gillingham’s race to lose. He still looks to be in a very good position,” Abacus vice-president Curtis Brown told CBC. He told the Free Press that “none of the other candidates has convincingly made the case that they represent the best change.”
Gillingham said the poll reflects strong support but that he is not taking it for granted. “I’ve been ahead in polls and behind in polls, and I know they can change. What matters is the result on election day and that’s where I’m focused,” he said in a statement.
Vote-splitting on the right, a surge on the left
Klein urged Vogiatzakis supporters to switch to him. “I’m the person that can beat Scott Gillingham, so I would suggest to his supporters: switch your vote over to Kevin Klein,” he said.
Vogiatzakis said, “A poll is a snapshot in time. The election will be decided by the people who cast their ballots on Oct. 28.”
Redden, 27, more than tripled his support since September while campaigning largely on social media. “I think people are really looking for a new way of doing things, a more progressive voice,” he said.
University of Winnipeg political scientist Aaron Moore said voter frustration may be landing on the mayor. “I think people are not really happy with the state of the city right now, and (Gillingham) is getting blamed for that,” he said.
Caveats
Abacus recruited 685 residents online and by text, so no margin of error applies; a comparable random sample would carry a margin of 3.7 points, 19 times out of 20. CBC cautioned that two survey questions were worded in a way that could be considered leading.
The city says a record 50,767 people voted in advance, up 21% from 2022. Polls are open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Central time Wednesday, Oct. 28.
Like Buffalo, Winnipeg is wrestling with downtown renewal, homelessness and addictions, issues Moore said the city lacks the revenue and authority to fix alone.
The Buffalo Chronicle has requested comment from the City of Winnipeg’s election office on when results are expected Wednesday night.
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