By Staff Reporter
BUFFALO — Iran says it has offered Washington a seven-day path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Washington wants more. And until the two sides close that gap, Western New Yorkers will keep paying for it every time they fill a tank or a heating oil drum.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iraq’s Al Ekhbariya television Tuesday that Tehran remains in indirect talks with the United States through Pakistan and Qatar, but will keep the strait closed without an agreement, Iran International reported.
He said Iran had presented a seven-day plan under which the strait would be fully reopened on the sixth day. “The Americans informed us that they agreed to these conditions, but they wanted to add several other provisions,” Mr. Araghchi said.
“The negotiating table is still there,” he added. “If they adhere to these conditions, they should know that the strait will be fully reopened, and after that we will hold further rounds of negotiations until a final agreement is reached.”
What each side is demanding
Iran’s proposal would reopen the waterway under its control in exchange for lifting the U.S. maritime blockade, easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports, releasing frozen assets and ending hostilities on all fronts, The National reported.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who arrived in Tehran this week to carry messages between the sides, that the United States “must lift threats and sanctions before any talks,” according to Iranian state media cited by The National.
“It is not possible to increase the severity of sanctions and pressure day by day and close the paths and roads to our country, and then claim to have dialogue and negotiation,” Mr. Pezeshkian said.
The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding in June aimed at ending the war that began in February, but have since exchanged strikes, ABC News reported. The U.S. says it is blockading Iranian shipping; Iran says the strait is closed. On Tuesday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed two oil tankers struck naval mines south of the strait, and British maritime authorities reported a tanker interdicted off Oman.
Washington’s message
President Donald Trump, campaigning in Kansas on Monday night, cast the war as already won.
“By the way, somebody said you could leave right now. It’s true. We can leave right now. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,” Mr. Trump said, according to ABC News.
Mr. Trump has said the U.S. will not strike Iran again before the Nov. 3 election, Reuters reported, according to The National. But Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran is deliberately dragging out the talks to deny Mr. Trump a win before the vote. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory,” one official was quoted as saying.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, warned that any new U.S. strike would be answered. “The era of hitting and running is over,” he said, The National reported.
Qatar, the other mediator, said Tuesday that communication between the two sides had “not stopped.”
The bill in Western New York
The standoff has a price tag that shows up on Buffalo street corners. Crude oil approached $110 a barrel Monday, The National reported, citing Iran’s Fars news agency.
Regular gasoline in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls metro averaged $4.37 a gallon early Wednesday, according to AAA, compared with $3.16 a year ago. Diesel averaged $6.36, up from $3.86.
Heating oil is the bigger worry heading into winter. New York’s average residential heating oil price was $6.34 a gallon, before taxes, in the week of Oct. 12, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A year earlier it was $3.84. That is a 65 percent jump for Western New York households that still heat with oil.
Canada’s budget watchdog, in a report released Tuesday, said energy prices tied to the disruption of shipping through the strait will keep Canadian inflation elevated this year, a reminder that the pressure reaches both sides of the Niagara River.
Help is coming, but it is limited. New York’s Home Energy Assistance Program opens Nov. 2 with higher benefits for oil users, The Chronicle reported Oct. 18. But as we reported earlier this month, at Western New York prices, the bigger check buys about a third less fuel.
What would change it
Mr. Araghchi’s account suggests the outlines of a deal exist: a phased reopening tied to sanctions and blockade relief. The dispute is over sequencing, with Tehran insisting the U.S. meet what he called the commitments of the “Islamabad memorandum” before other issues are negotiated, and Washington seeking added provisions it has not publicly detailed.
For American families, the question is whether either government is willing to move before Nov. 3. Iranian officials told Reuters there is little prospect of a breakthrough before the vote. If they are right, Western New York goes into the first cold snaps of the season with fuel prices set in the Persian Gulf.
The Buffalo Chronicle is seeking comment from the State Department and New York’s congressional delegation and will update this story with any response.
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