Alberta votes to stay in Canada, CBC projects, after a campaign Carney cast as a stand against outside pressure

By Staff Reporter

EDMONTON — Albertans have voted to remain in Canada, CBC News projected early Tuesday, turning back a proposal to begin the legal process toward a binding referendum on leaving the country.

The CBC News Decision Desk called the result minutes after the last voting place closed. Cheers broke out at the Forever Canadian watch party in Edmonton when the projection was announced, CBC reported.

With 23% of voting locations reporting at 11:26 p.m. Mountain time, Option 1, “Alberta should remain a province of Canada,” led with 76.5% to 23.5%, or 805,751 votes to 247,756, according to unofficial Elections Alberta figures compiled by Alberta.io. About 1.1 million ballots had been counted of the roughly 2.4 million expected. Elections Alberta says its results are unofficial until certified.

The count started late. Elections Alberta kept more than 100 voting places that opened late open until 10 p.m. and released no results until they closed, Alberta.io reported. The separation question, Question 10 on the ballot, is counted by hand first at every voting place. The other nine questions, on immigration, proof of citizenship for voting, the Senate and provincial powers, are being counted one at a time through Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Buffalo, which sits on the northern border and has watched U.S.-Canada relations sour for nearly two years, the outcome matters for a simple reason. A Canada that holds together, and a prime minister who can say so, will be the one across the table when trade talks with Washington resume.

Where the vote split

The returns split along familiar lines. In the count so far, Edmonton ridings voted 89.3% to remain and Calgary 83.6%, while the province’s other cities voted 71.2% and rural ridings 63.9% to remain and 36.1% to start the separation process, Alberta.io’s tally showed. The strongest separatist showing came in Grande Prairie-Wapiti, where 62.0% of the votes counted backed starting the process.

The ballot question did not ask voters to leave Canada. It asked whether the provincial government should “commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.” Polls before the vote had shown about 72% support for remaining among decided voters, Alberta.io said.

Premier Danielle Smith, who put the question on the ballot, voted to remain. “Canada can still work,” she said after casting her ballot last week, the Associated Press reported. “We just need to make some changes.”

Carney’s warning, aimed south

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Alberta, campaigned in Calgary and Edmonton in the final week and framed the vote as a test of whether Canada could withstand pressure from the United States.

“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Mr. Carney told a rally at Calgary’s BMO Centre on Oct. 15, according to the AP. “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us.”

He did not name the United States or President Donald Trump in that passage, the AP noted, but the warning came during Mr. Trump’s trade war with Canada and after his repeated talk of making Canada the 51st state.

“This is not poker,” Mr. Carney said. “A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”

The separatist campaign said a strong showing would give Alberta leverage with Ottawa even if it fell short. Let Alberta Decide co-chair Tanya Clemens told the AP that Mr. Carney’s agreements with Ms. Smith amount to “pinky promises.” Another leader of the group, Keith Wilson, predicted Mr. Carney would eventually tax oil exports to retaliate against the United States. “It’s one cabinet meeting away,” Mr. Wilson said. Mr. Carney has said he sees no value in using energy exports as leverage.

Carney’s response

Asked by The Buffalo Chronicle for the prime minister’s response to the result, the Prime Minister’s Office pointed to a statement Mr. Carney issued early Tuesday. “On October 19, Albertans made a clear choice. They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other. Above all, Albertans chose Canada,” he said.

“While votes on all questions continue to be tallied, tonight’s results on the defining question of separation mean that Albertans and all Canadians will move forward together with renewed purpose and high ambition,” Mr. Carney said in the statement.

The office said Mr. Carney also spoke Tuesday morning. Video of his remarks is posted on CPAC.

Why Washington is watching

Alberta exports roughly 1.24 billion barrels of oil a year to the United States, more than any other jurisdiction in the world, the National Post reported. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in January that an independent Alberta would be a “natural partner” for the United States, according to the Post.

The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, said in July that Washington would stay out. “The vote that’s going to happen in October is a decision for the people of Alberta,” he said on an Edmonton talk show, according to the Post. He said he had “clear direction from Washington” not to try to influence the result, while acknowledging that U.S. officials had met with separatists.

Mr. Carney has made reducing Canada’s dependence on the U.S. part of his pitch to Alberta, pointing to the proposed Pacific Link pipeline to the West Coast. At the Calgary rally, he said the line would create more than 140,000 jobs.

What it means at the Peace Bridge

Western New York’s stake is indirect but real. A Canadian government with a decisive national-unity result has more room to bargain over tariffs and the future of the USMCA. One still fighting a separatist movement in its oil province would have less.

The vote is not binding. Even a win for the separation option would only have started a legal process, and Mr. Carney said in May that Ottawa was reviewing whether the question triggers the Clarity Act, under which the House of Commons decides whether a provincial referendum question is clear, CBC News reported.

When the count will be final

Elections Alberta must finish counting and publish unofficial results within 48 hours of the close of voting, and official results are due Oct. 29, the agency said on X.

“The unofficial results must be released within 48 hours of close of voting. Therefore, we have until 10:41pm October 21, 2026 to complete the hand count,” an Elections Alberta spokesperson said in an email to The Buffalo Chronicle.

The agency will not report turnout before the official results. “Turnout will not be released until official results on October 29. Once unofficial results are completed, you will be able to deduce the preliminary turnout numbers,” the spokesperson said. “The count is ongoing and can be seen at https://results.elections.ab.ca/8400.”

Any recount would come after the results are certified. “An application for a recount must be filed and served no later than 8 days after the official results,” the spokesperson said.

This story will be updated as more results and reactions come in.

Featured photo: The Alberta Legislature Building in Edmonton. D. Benjamin Miller / Wikimedia Commons, CC0.

Updated Oct. 20, 2026: This story was updated to include comment from Elections Alberta and the Prime Minister’s Office.